绉瀛虹涔叉锛

瀹100涓汉浜涓娆＄‖甯锛朵腑48涓汉纭姝ｉ㈡涓锛 52浜哄纭㈡涓浣杩缇や汉涓ソ锛浠浠娆㈡ュ姝ｉ㈡涓缁锛瀵逛㈡涓缁锛浠浠氨存蹇借涓ャ浜浣扮缁48浜哄浜涓娆＄‖甯锛ㄩㄩ芥㈡涓锛锛

姣濂浣浼瑙寰杩涓洪灞锛涓轰ラ纭姝ｉ㈡涓㈡涓姒澶х害50%风锛濡涓浣绉瀛ㄤ娆″楠涓堕浜100涓版癸浣ュ50涓版癸ｄ浠璁や负浠浜哄濡涓绌惰瀹瀹楠锛村ｄ捐缁绌惰浠ヨ褰㈠缁ュ烘ワ浠技涔氨句互杈ㄥ鸿璋浜惰锛骞堕浜洪藉拷瑙浜杩涓艾璇涓浜绌惰╁板浜杩涓锛涔芥挎甯歌硷涓烘缁璁℃捐缁锛姝ゅ惧惧 ;-锛锛锛骞跺惰琛绯荤绌讹杩涓灏辨瀛虹锛Publication bias锛

绉瀛虹?

虹ㄥ绌惰瀹＄浜哄蹇缂杈惧浜璇虹ｄュ浜缁璁′捐宸缁璁烘㈠璇璇达濡涓涓楠璋ユ病缁璁′捐搴锛ｄ璇ョ绌惰藉虹芥у氨澶уぇ浣杩浜绌剁缁灏卞芥惧ㄧ绌朵汉藉锛瑙涓浜冲锛姝ｆ姝わ杩涓杩涓涓瀛锛浠舵藉锛file drawer problem锛(Rosenthal, 1979)

虹板

虹骞朵涓绌堕规锛尝扮瀛绌剁涓锛杩浠浠ヤ汉姣杈绀句绉瀛╁诲涓や釜棰涓轰锛璁＄哄惧舰瀛绌堕渚瀛瑙杩锛╁1959骞达蹇瀛Sterling灏辨猴ㄥ瀛虹涓虹戒瀛ㄥ樊(Sterling, 1959)1979骞达浣澶у蹇缁璁″瀹剁浼*缃妫灏锛Robert Rosethal锛轰缁璁℃规ヤ及璁￠ｄ琚惧ㄦ藉绌剁(Rosenthal, 1979)80骞翠唬锛诲绌惰涔寮濮虫敞虹渚濡ぇ瀛诲㈢Easterbrook绛(1991)浜娲ョ绌朵鸡涓濮浼1984骞村1987骞撮存瑰487椤圭绌讹1990骞达285椤圭绌剁宸茬琛浜锛朵腑52%缁寰浠ュ虹ㄥ虹绔涓ｄㄧ璁′杈惧版捐缁姣ｄ娌℃杈惧版捐缁虹杩绋村锛涔村板虹ㄩ褰卞瀛蹇涓

界剁绌惰浠╁氨颁杩涓锛浣剧虹骞舵姝よ寰拌В筹浣浜宸瀹杩琛娑蹭跨ょ绌朵腑蹇锛Hematology and Oncology Research at Amgen锛璐璐ｄ汉C路间鸡路璐煎╋C. Glenn Begley锛 涓痉ㄦぇ瀛寰锋．绌朵腑蹇M路╂Lee M. Ellis锛2012骞村Nature 涓猴ㄤ椤归澶53涓╁楠绌朵腑锛6椤圭绌跺拌瀹ぇ瀛诲㈢绾堪路P路A路灏艰开(John  P.A.  Ioannidis)浜2014骞寸涔琛ㄦㄦ板寸绁缁锛虹涔甯镐弗

虹锛璐归辫

芥浜轰瑙寰锛虹涓灏辨璁╀浜璁烘虹锛涔娌′涔澶т浜杩瀹ㄦ及浜虹瀵圭棰虫姘浼褰卞

2014骞1锛椤跺诲蹇冲锛Lancet锛琛ㄤ涓绡璁ㄨ昏绌跺浣娴垂楂浠峰兼绔锛澶浼澶у绌惰瀹锛An-Wen Chan锛绛(2014)璁ㄨ浜虹涓ラ涔涓锛娴垂绉璧婧姘浼ュ悍锛杩绉璧绉瀛堕村绮惧ャ璇ユ寮浜猴lorcainide锛妗渚: 1980骞达绌惰娴璇浜猴lorcainide锛杩绉蹇寰涓榻╋ㄤ100澶浜虹灏锋琛璇楠锛浣跨ㄥ虹瀹楠缁姝讳骸19%锛浣跨ㄧ涓哥瀹板缁姝讳骸2%浣褰剁绌惰蹇缁虹绉ュ剁浜╃户缁箍娉颁负蹇寰涓榻ｈ浣跨村19891992骞寸涓村璇楠杩绫昏╃卞浣ㄨ杩10骞撮达变轰互绫讳技╁箍娉浣跨藉浜20 00070 000涓蹇瑕姝讳骸

虹涓涓卞虹绌朵腑惧杩扮Н锛涓浜搴瑰绌惰琛ㄥ烘ワ缁ц寮朵绌惰缁х画ヨ瑰锛璇绉璧板2011骞达绀句蹇瀛椤剁骇蹇浜烘间ぞ浼蹇瀛蹇涓琛ㄤ涓涓濂绌讹搴峰灏澶у蹇瀛郴杈鹃灏 路J 路 (Daryl J. Bem)澶у绔跺浠ラユワ杩涓句澶浜瀹缁寰蹇虫璧峰灞娴涓轰瀛搴ヨ锛藉棰ユユ灏浜浠躲骞哥绌跺璧蜂骞挎虫敞锛浠ㄧぞ浼蹇瀛璧蜂充虹澶瀹楠绛绌舵规涓璁ㄨ疆

虹浠朵骇锛

虹浣浜х锛涓涓猴缁璁＄涓捐绌舵蹇瀹＄浜哄缂杈cut浣瀹涓锛变璁烘板涔瑕绌惰ュぇ堕村绮惧锛绌惰浠凡缁琛浜瀹℃ワ纰板伴存х讹存寮绌剁锛杞板楠锛涓冲娉存х虹

杩锛ぇ瀛挎不绉瀛郴绌惰瀹濡 浣绉绛ㄣ绉瀛锛Science锛涓琛ㄧ璁烘璇瀹杩涓浠浠浜2002骞寸藉藉剁瀛洪绀句绉瀛堕村变韩绌堕」 (Time-sharing Experiments in the Social Sciences, TESS) 涓绌堕」涓鸿浜绌堕」界昏ㄦ绌惰姘村钩稿绌惰璁¤川浠浠缁琛ㄦ澶х害65%存х绌剁存琚绌惰惧版藉锛娌℃璁烘锛浠璁╁ぇ澶扮存х逛腑充负浠涔绌惰浼╀杩浜存х绔锛澶чㄥ浜虹绛蹇涓浼杩浜存х绔

璺ㄤ癸

瀵逛虹锛澶чㄥ绌惰棣瑙ｅ虫规昏绌讹虫绌跺ㄥ濮涔界昏ㄦ锛х昏璁捐杩琛瀹楠骞跺缁浜锛浠璁╁ラ杩浜存х瀛画绉浜哄╁璐㈠ワ浠ュㄥ昏锛╃浣跨ㄣ

诲归㈠凡缁涓浜稿斤渚濡锛涓涓О涓轰复搴璇楠缃绔锛http://clinicaltrials.gov/锛 灏辫村浜涓村绌堕芥昏ㄦ蹇瀛杩涔姝ｆ绫讳技锛绌惰璧峰缓绔蹇瀛浠舵藉妗ｆ锛http://psychfiledrawer.org/锛涓杩ㄤ界跺ぇㄥ绌惰璁や负昏浠跺ソ浜锛浣姝ｅ涓涓跨浜哄翠澶锛寰绠锛绉澧骞朵榧辩绌惰杩琛昏绌惰ㄧ烘锛澶у绌舵锛骞朵浼涓虹绌惰昏骞跺涓涓绌惰瀵逛杩琛濂憋规跺琛ㄧ璁烘ヨ琛璇浼帮

姝ゅ锛绌舵韩涓纭э涔浣垮昏绯荤寰剧锛涓虹绌惰藉ㄥ楠杩绋涓瀹楠杩琛缁璋达杩浜璋存句互棰宸撮寰风澶у诲㈢Mathieu浜2009骞村琛ㄥㄣ缇藉诲浼蹇锛Journal of the American Medical Association, JAMA锛涓涓琛ㄦ昏绯荤瀵瑰虹绋搴锛杩藉浜褰绉澧浠跺戒杩浜虹浜х

缁璇锛

骞哥绉瀛绌跺寰骞堕纭ｄ猴充娇虹瀛绉瀛讳瑷杩ㄦ渚ヨ瀵瑰虹绾姝ｏ负浜璁╃村瀹缇瑕璁颁绌跺虹锛涔瀛

稿抽炬锛

TED med: Ben Goldacre: What doctors don't know about the drugs they prescribe

Begley, C.G., and Ellis, L.M. (2012). Drug development: Raise standards for preclinical cancer research. Nature 483, 531-533. doi: 10.1038/483531a

Bem, D.J. (2011). Feeling the future: Experimental evidence for anomalous retroactive influences on cognition and affect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 100, 407-425. doi: 10.1037/a0021524

Chan, A.-W., Song, F., Vickers, A., Jefferson, T., Dickersin, K., G?tzsche, P.C., Krumholz, H.M., Ghersi, D., and Van Der Worp, H.B. (2014). Increasing value and reducing waste: addressing inaccessible research. The Lancet 383, 257-266. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(13)62296-5

Easterbrook, P.J., Gopalan, R., Berlin, J.A., and Matthews, D.R. (1991). Publication bias in clinical research. The Lancet 337, 867-872. doi: 10.1016/0140-6736(91)90201-Y

Franco, A., Malhotra, N., and Simonovits, G. (2014). Publication bias in the social sciences: Unlocking the file drawer. Science. doi: 10.1126/science.1255484

Ioannidis, J.P.A., Munaf貌, M.R., Fusar-Poli, P., Nosek, B.A., and David, S.P. (2014). Publication and other reporting biases in cognitive sciences: detection, prevalence, and prevention. Trends in Cognitive Sciences 18, 235-241. doi: 10.1016/j.tics.2014.02.010

Rosenthal, R. (1979). The file drawer problem and tolerance for null results. Psychological Bulletin 86, 638-641. doi: 10.1037/0033-2909.86.3.638

Sterling, T.D. (1959). Publication Decisions and their Possible Effects on Inferences Drawn from Tests of Significanceor Vice Versa. Journal of the American Statistical Association 54, 30-34. doi: 10.1080/01621459.1959.10501497