浜浼缃?寰凤板脊瀛板澶у

2锛璧蜂涓″浜绉ㄧ锛璁茶В浜甯歌锛涓缃ㄦや鲸浜浠剁浜靛奖绘浜烘缁充姘淬充琛充虹蹭

2娴锋[1]

杩涓卞璁╀汉宠捣浜绗娆′澶ф浣涓轰汉绫诲涓瑙妯℃娴╁ぇ褰卞娣辫浜锛绗娆′澶ф锛涓浠ㄥ板涓妯法ぇ娲层涓澶ф锛涓挎不涓℃浜涓婚诧浠ュ骞哄涓杈

浜浼缃路寰凤灏辨蜂浣灞ㄥ遍

濂ュ板╃绌峰

浜浼缃路寰凤Abraham Wald锛涔璇垮か濮路娌灏寰凤锛1902虹浜虫．★Cluj-Napoca锛褰剁虫．￠跺浜ゥ甯斤浠ラ绗娆′澶ф缁濂ュ甯界瑙ｄ锛寰风瀹朵埂涔规㈤ㄥ涵锛涓轰缃椹凹浜涓ㄥ

寰枫[2]

浜锛瀹璇达圭己涔浼绉板瀹朵凤寰峰╁氨剧ず轰楂板澶╄锛椤哄╄ュぇ瀛浜涓ㄥ姹锛姣濡锛板瀛灏变澶寸璇剧锛姣濡搴┖淬

涓涓风版瑰ㄤ寰烽╀濂ュ板╋杩ヤ缁翠绾冲ぇ瀛浠姹瀛娑板ソ璧跺ㄧ涓娆′澶ф绗娆′澶ф涔淬20涓绾20骞翠唬娆ф床锛灏卞村け灞瀛浜洪界ラ澶т涓濡锛浣涔涓ラ璇ユ锛浜娇轰繁姹娈碉绉富涔规缁绛绛绛绛

浠澶╃缁翠绾冲ぇ瀛[3]

ㄨ风姘翠锛浣涓轰涓瑰お浜猴冲ㄥぇ瀛惧版锛剧舵界澶浜╂?规╋Morgenstern锛寮璁虹绔锛锛寰锋惧颁涓浠藉浠ュ寮虹宸ヤ[4]

灏界惰涓榻锛介澶锛寰蜂朵挎惧繁瀵规板憋甯芥句涓浠ュ蹇绌舵板浣1938骞达绾崇补寰峰藉棰濂ュ板╀互寰风浜瀹浜冲灏洪浼锛Cowles Commission for Research in Economics锛璇凤缇姐[2]

瀹楠瀹ら规瀛

寰锋垢杩锛浠涓浠椤哄╅颁缇斤涓缁杞杩ヤヤ鸡姣浜澶у缁璁＄绌跺锛寰蜂骞哥锛涓归浠瀹朵汉婊娆ф床锛姝诲ㄤ绾崇补纾ㄤ涓锛涓归浠璁＄绌跺规涓涓

缁璁＄绌跺ㄥ帮剧ユ瑙姘村帮

褰剁缁璁″锛浜ㄤ椤跺澶磋姣濡寮峰痉.瑰锛浣澶у缁璁＄郴寤鸿锛姣濡锛璇轰集?缁寸撼锛惰濮浜恒

寰峰

界跺ぇ瀹惰浠板藉锛浣姣绔浣ヨ界渚ㄦ浠ワ灏卞虹浜涓涓璞★寰峰椤绘规瑕锛涓浜ュ锛涓轰汉瀹惰浠ワ灏辨共杩涓锛涓杩锛瀹涓浜や互寰锋病ラ杩浜ュ锛涓鸿浜ュ灞浜哄

寤虹淇′换瑕濂猴ｄ釜濂哄蹇氨ヤ

浠绉涓璁诧绗娆′澶ф烘寮绔璋㈠颁剁┖锛璋灏卞涓诲ㄣ浠ワ浜达涔ぉ芥澶ч哄浜灏辨ヤ锛浜轰涓骞查キ锛浣娲鹃鸿锛浜哄朵伙涓ヤ锛椋轰腑寮广涔冲け浜锛姝ｅ父涓杩锛璇ユ楂椋虹瀛

绠规锛灏辨椋哄瑁层褰剁缇藉瑰浜涓ワ缁璁′椋哄ㄤ涓脊伴涓洪哄锛娌″娉ｄ釜╂峰匡浠ワ瑁插椤诲ㄦ瑕版广

瑕瑁插

圭缁璁℃版[4]

杩杩寮捐〃浠ュ镐俊寰澶浜虹绗搴鸿韩瑕

逛涔璁や负锛寰凤寸轰剁稿绛妗锛寮瑕寮虹

涓轰瑙ｈ涓锛浠浠ュ璁撅浜哄灏涓寮癸㈢娌规涓归鸿捣椋浜轰氦锛跺涓洪虹哄ㄦу寮猴绌烘浣寮锛浜哄藉虹ㄤ换浣涓涓逛涔灏辨锛椋轰腑寮癸涓烘堕达瀵逛堕烘ヨ锛姣ㄥ涓脊姒锛绛锛濡瀵硅浜椋哄涓涓璁★姣釜ㄤ虹娌规伴搴璇ュ杩

杩涓涓轰涔圭璋ユ版涓峰

涓哄腑寮圭椋猴寰寰椋涓モ

浜椋[5]

瀹瑁瑁茬锛椋虹瀛娲荤濡虫敞ｄ椤哄╄椋虹涓脊碉灏变峰ラ昏璇猴杩灏辨ぇ榧骞稿樊锛survivorship bias锛杩涓璁猴ㄤ澶╋浠舵寰寮虹瀹姣濡锛镐功锛ㄥㄦ峰ソ澶ㄦ锋版跺锛灏辩ㄥ颁寰风璁猴[5]姣濡锛褰浣ㄧ涓ユ荤ョ跺锛浣涓瀹瑕璁颁浼ㄧ缁涓浜ユ荤ョ锛甯告凡缁ユ锛杩浜浜烘骞稿锛浠浠缁锛涓界уㄦ躲

崇璁哄ぇ甯

涓杈瀛涓浠朵涓璧风浜锛灏辫冻浠ョ浜惰锛寰风寰绋寮濮锛杩村ぇ楠ㄧ浠

寰[6]

浠锛甸┈辩伯寮硅涓浠瑕锛涓瑕濂姐浠讳涓涓轰锛芥藉奖涓烘褰广浠ワㄧ╄妫楠锛涓ぇ鹃

姣硅э浜у浜т涓涓脊锛瑰浣缁缁楠跺

存规锛ㄤ釜胯涓涓版锛跺涓璁¤〃褰讹杩涔涔灏卞け楠剁浜

浜舵ヤ鸡姣浜澶у宸ヤ浜哄[7]

甯哥ㄧ规锛芥锋ャ楠剁涓癸瀹涓涓涓锛濂芥璇达脊肩蹇椤诲ぇ浜99%锛规涓锛锋伴藉涓ょ锛姣浜惧锛娴璇锛璁＄骞冲肩锛ㄦ锋肩锛浼扮脊肩

涓杩锛ㄧ╄姣杈规瑕妫ョ脊肩锛浣寰瀹杩伴跺哄э杩寰澶涓浜э姣釜峰藉灏哄э杩涓绗涓绗锛芥卞绗娆′澶ф达缇戒互涓戒锛涓娲层澶钩娲涓澶ф猴憋涔寰硅便

涓轰瑙ｅ宠风鹃锛寰峰у版轰搴疮规[8]璋搴疮锛灏辨т瀹椤哄娆＄杩琛芥枫涓涓脊锛瑕姹肩99%锛骞冲ヨ锛涓惧脊锛澶浠ユ涓涓肩ｄ锛浠㈠戒惧烘ワ杩琛娴璇锛濡涓肩脊伴ぇ浜锛灏变ㄦ娴璇浜锛杩圭脊戒绗瑕姹锛濡涓肩脊伴浜锛浠ラ杩板璁＄锛ゆ涓ヨ瑕涓瑕斤瑕藉灏姝わ涓缁芥疯ヤ锛搴疮骞朵浜瑙瀹锋伴竟借竟妫规璋村画琛ㄣ杩凤灏辫藉╃ㄦ芥锋ョ缁锛㈣戒璇纭э藉ぇ涓哄娴垂[9]

澶ц妯″浜琛ㄤ腑锛璁惧╄川ч甯搁瑕[10]

搴疮锛ㄨ绉颁涓哄疮姒姣妫楠锛Sequential probability ratio test锛SPRT锛绉板虹板炽惰浠ユワ涓浠ㄥ浜绉瀛骞挎杩[11]锛涓褰卞颁璁稿朵瀛

涓句釜渚瀛э涓芥澶у斤楂瀛娲荤抽╂璇涓讹涓戒汉浼澶锛ㄤ釜璇妫ワ灏辩ｄ釜憋涔娌￠ｄ澶荤浠ワ浠ヨㄥ疮炽棣锛浜轰滑捐ラ凤娌℃涓圭肩锛娌℃椋娆蹭娑涓锛姣椤归芥娉ㄤ涓板锛琛ㄧず涓宠搴诲扮瑰锛寰濂斤ｈ姒寰浣涓ㄦヤ锛版杈楂锛杩娴璇锛妫ヨ璁扮╋濡璁扮╂剧ず涓洪虫э灏卞璇妫ャ杩凤杩搴疮锛涓浠浠ヨ绾锛杩藉╁ｈ锛楂剁瀛[12]

缁璇

涓哄疮杩涓匡寰疯璐规灏锛板虹缁璁″瀹讹琚О涔涓衡缁璁＄锛硅璐规灏璁や负锛缁璁″浠诲℃琛版稿淇℃涓哄崇锛充寰凤骞茶规繁绌讹轰缁璁″崇璁恒

涓ユㄣ娴疯竟″か°涓锛涓涓╋涓涓汇韬负浜猴浠藉浜浠朵浠舵宠锛姣濡锛冲涓虹涓楣锛渚挎崇濂戒瑕惰锛衡瀹ラ㈢渚缁璁★浠藉ㄥ娴涓瀛

浠や汉捐1950骞12锛寰峰椋哄け浜俱涓杈瀛绌堕烘х浜猴缁娈藉ㄤ涓烘т浠朵

缇芥浜ㄧ瀹ｄ伙宸板斤锛板荤撼绮[13]

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[1] 2 (璞)[EB/OL]. [2017-08-12]. https://movie.douban.com/subject/26363254/.

[2] Abraham Wald[J]. Wikipedia, 2017.

[3] Universit?t Wien[J]. Wikipedia, 2017.

[4] 涔涓?句鸡浼. 榄楝兼板[M]. ″, 璇. 涓俊虹, 2015.

[5] How A Story From World War II Shapes Facebook Today[EB/OL]. [2017-08-01]. https://www.fastcodesign.com/1671172/how-a-story-from-world-war-ii-shapes-facebook-today.

[6] SHOTTON R. Data lessons from a mathematical genius[EB/OL]. . http://mediatel.co.uk/newsline/2016/09/12/data-lessons-from-a-mathematical-genius.

[7] Columbia Forum: WWII & NYC | Columbia College Today[EB/OL]. [2017-08-13]. https://www.college.columbia.edu/cct/archive/summer13/columbia_forum.

[8] WALD A. Sequential tests of statistical hypotheses[J]. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 1945, 16(2): 117186.

[9] . 婕缁璁″搴ㄤ灞 (2)[J]. 扮缁璁′, 2011, 30(2): 254270.

[10] Of B-17s, Math, Mediation, & Thinking | Triangle Smart Divorce Cary NC[J]. 2016.

[11] 濂案绛. 搴疮娉ㄨ扮ㄨ楠涓搴[J]. 涓ユ, 2004, 29(1): 98102.

[12] 瀛杩扮. ╂搴疮绛ョ娴琛瀛[J]. 涓戒复搴绌, 2010, 23(7): 560562.

[13] MCRANEY D. Survivorship Bias[J]. You Are Not So Smart, 2013.