澶╂棰ュ涓浼璇浣10浠朵锛

涓璁烘ㄧ杩跺ぉ姘锛戒缁涓灏琛涓甯ュ奖浣涔浜琛涓绁稿绂渚濡姘璞′瀹垛ㄧ斤姘璞￠娴宸插灞涓涓环60浜跨琛涓澶╂楗航浼杩楹借锛杩㈤猴

1. 澶╀涓榛ㄢ

澶╂浼间涓井涓瓒抽璇棰锛浣涔绗澶х澶╂棰ュ凡缁夸负涓涓环60浜跨锛绾浜烘甯365浜垮锛浜т锛瀹勾浠峰间杩50浜跨锛绾浜烘甯305浜垮锛锛濂路板(Rich Jeffries)璇淬浠╁缁澶у澶ф瀛绌惰浼(University Corporation for Atmospheric Research)璐璐ｄ汉绉浜哄姘璞′骇涓澹姹灞憋朵＄绫诲灏芥锛浠ā椋存ā版绠澶╂甯点璇ヤ骇涓朵ㄥ卞辨℃锛渚濡藉杩ョ缇藉藉姘璞″(National Weather Service)

澶╂棰ユ挎椋╄姣洪ㄦ甯澶у澶锛规及绠锛缇界腑澶х害3涓浜跨锛绾浜烘甯18涓浜垮锛变ぉ姘稿崇浜т缁锛涔灏辨澶ч棰ユ浼浠拌

惧孤峰(Stuart Brown)璇达濡浣杩佃ョ焊澶╂棰ョ璇锛浣扮法澶у板北涓灏涓瑙浠ㄥ淇╁Swiss Re浠诲ぉ姘涓芥浜т璐璐ｄ汉锛璇ュ灏棰娴版哄芥浠揣杩颁茶璧绛琛涓芥璧浜ぉ姘棰ュ锛杩灏辨崇杩浜瑕卞ぇ浠烽卞ㄧ浜哄ぉ姘棰ユ′

板锛澶╂瀵逛芥褰卞锛绘涓琛涓浜烘ユ浠琛ㄧず缁“涔浜姘璞′骇涓澧匡浜烘″辨★浣棰璁″ㄥ勾澧灏10%15%

2.姣璧锋璞″浠存胯ラ

浠ヤ汉ュ藉甫姘骞堕浠涔伴浜锛扮惧勾ヨタ板害缇ゅ椋椋芥互 浜虹瀛藉缇藉1950骞村ㄤ瀹圭椋椋藉′濡浠锛涓姘璞＄缁(World Meteorological Organization)绠＄涓寮婊ㄥ缇藉藉姘璞″琛ㄧず锛浣跨ㄥ瀛浠ュ缁含搴杩疯藉绠娌璇

浣2012骞达涓瀹舵璞℃伴绘烘ㄤ缇界姘璞￠ョ锛涓轰浠濮涓哄椋村藉娆ф床姘璞″骞存ラ藉ㄤ负椋村藉锛缇芥璞￠(Weather Channel)寮ㄤ朵腑璇存锛琛ㄧず杩风藉娉灏璁ょュ害骞惰藉村逛究拌拷韪寸杩绋

惰浜姘璞¤娴磋涓鸿绉藉灞浜ラ绛ワ涓洪村藉藉缁ュ钩搴哥伴诲浜璁稿烘锛浜轰滑磋叮搴虫惰瀹惧娉灏间澶у(University of Pennsylvania)娌椤垮瀛(Wharton School)甯鸿ラ瀛涔绾陈蜂集(Jonah Berger)璇达澶╂朵涓瑗夸凤瑕ㄥ轰杩琛瑙锛浠绌舵瑰蹇典

杩硅薄借〃负椋村藉纭璧蜂姘璞￠璧娣遍翠瀹跺┞疯娲(Bryan Norcross)璇达骞村ぉ缇芥璞￠涓轰涓椋村涓浜灏艰(Nemo)瀛涔寮浜逛12浜挎″充凹杩涓璇棰瑷娆￠翠寮浜涓浜挎¤璁恒

杩璇〃寸瀛藉ㄥ浼娴烽锛浼板涓浜ㄤ浠2012骞寸绌朵腑杩颁璞＄婕锛灏椋椋瀛浣涓哄渚浠浠褰涓洪椋璧蜂宸ㄥぇ虫敞甯稿宠瀛ㄦ扮垮瀛涓村娆㈣渚濡ㄥ＄归濞椋椋(Hurricane Katrina)杩浠ュ姣K寮澶寸扮垮瀛杩涓浜绾9%

璇哄娲苟涓涓洪村藉负浜寮璧蜂汉浠澶╂瑙锛浠璇村藉′灏瑕朵寮浜惰涓娑ㄣ浣璇磋浜瀛骞朵负浜佃褰㈣薄锛负浜°

缇藉藉姘璞″涓浣伴诲瑷浜鸿〃绀猴浠浠涓哄椋村藉涓灏姝ょ被璁″

3. 版丁骞堕浠璁や负ｆ风瑙

浠骞存扮句缇戒汉芥颁版丁褰卞锛浣汉浠璁よ版扮稿锛浠浠璁稿苟涓涓娆″跺奖瀹涓涓涓椿ㄥㄦ杩芥函1940骞翠唬锛ｆ舵版丁伴缁堕撮匡ㄦ颁绌烘浜澶ч风┖姘锛缇藉藉娴锋澶ф绠＄灞(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)姘璞￠ヤ腑蹇(Climate Prediction Center)姘绉瀛绫虫灏路㈣但(Michelle LHeureux)璇淬㈣但璇达风┖姘甯镐ㄦ丁涓浣跺褰楂绌烘娴涓跺锛浼灏娑℃涓风┖姘涓璧峰甫璧般濂硅锛荤璇存ヨ甯歌璞°

板锛杩涓ぉ缇戒汉瀵峰ぉ姘澶х害浜板骞翠浣浠骞达版丁涓璇涓轰濯浣瀹裤璋锋绱㈣(Google Trends)浼杩借釜伴绘棰涓癸缁剧ず杩涓璇撮榛伙颁浠骞翠浠藉虫敞搴ヨ浆翠

浠骞村浜涓浣跨ㄩ互璇ㄩ浜凤瀵规璞¤涓涓璁稿浜烘ヨ介句互瑙ｃ璇哄娲锛杩釜寮浜烘敞璇锛宸翠寰繁冲烘ョ

4. 澶ч婚浜浣

1绫崇㈢ㄩぇ绾0.1绫炽濡澶╂棰ュ棰璁″1绫崇ㄨ缁涓浜2绫崇璇锛姘璞¤娴芥娉瀵瑙板哄ForecastWatch濮浜哄路瀵(Eric Floehr)璇达姘撮稿典锛濡棰ユ10绫崇涓浜20绫崇璇锛ｄㄨ矾涓查浜虹ㄨ蹇惰澶уぇ澧璇ュ渚姘璞′瀹堕ョ纭害杩借釜°

逛澶у(University of Utah)澶ф绉瀛濮路╁(Jim Steenburgh)璇达按浣绉渚浠3姣125姣1涓绛

撮瑕濡娓╁害杩扮癸棰ヤㄥ氨甯稿伴俱杩灏卞充诲害绾垮板ㄩ跺害杈广

╁艰锛杩ㄥ杞㈣寸跺锛棰娴椋翠腑板浼涓浠涔涔寰э杩朵汉浠父浼颁澶ㄥす

涓姘璞￠ユ渚Global Weather Corp.棣甯姣灏路灏(Bill Gail)璇达ㄦ璞″村浜楂棰ュ纭绌惰涓涓蜂瑗垮颁骞挎璁ゅ杩灏辨璋瀹堕モ锛ュ灏跺澶╂棰娴灏朵芥璞¤浼(American Meteorological Society)涓诲腑锛浠璇存村杩瀹堕ヨ藉府╀汉浠ㄥ洪ㄤ村ソ伴ュぉ姘

5. 浠垮ㄥぉ姘澶版硅琛棰モ

棰ュぉ姘炬绋搴涓板炽ㄦ案杩抽抽х澶澶凤棰ュ涔‘瀹ForecastWatch瀵璇达ㄧ戒腑瑗块ㄥ钩锛姘璞℃典村ㄥ锛╃镐俊澶╂棰ュ村鸿

瀵浜2012骞寸版浜楂娓╁害涓ュ樊澶х版光杈剧浠宸锛娓╁樊杈惧颁5.53搴濂界棰ュㄤ浠界纭杈惧颁70%告涔涓锛姣ユ楂娓╁害涓ュ樊灏澶风撼(Kailua Kona)锛0.62搴锛濂界棰ュ纭杈惧颁86%

姘璞￠璇哄娲ュぉ姘惧害浼板锛浣浠璁や负灏板烘鹃娴浠璇达渚濡娲惰风澶у锛澶╂寰浣块ュ寰灏や负伴俱

6. 浠戒娇ㄧ稿版浣浠棰ュ藉ぇ稿搴

杩棰ュ浠界存ㄧ藉藉姘璞″版姘璞″璐璐ｅㄥㄥ借村堕版浣浠棰ュ寰瓒ヨ绮惧锛璁稿姘璞″瀹堕藉繁娴绠绯荤缃璞″妯″涔涓浠寰颁棰ワ涓烘澶垮版

缁涓棰ュ瀵逛涓板虹棰娴瓒ヨ涓杩借釜棰ュ纭害瀵寰寰浼伴瀵瑰涓板虹姘娓╅ヤ涓や扮宸锛杩句哄缓妯″伐风宸ㄥぇ宸

翠涓宸ㄥぇ宸瀵璁や负棰ュ瀵逛繁棰ョ琛￠浠寰楂浠璇达灏璇灏变纭т杩琛浜ゆ涓涓琛伴浜棰ヤ即哄宸х帮姣濡50%姘存锛锛杩浜棰ヨ绂昏揪杩寰ヨ

ㄦㄧ╂版氮娼腑锛棰ユ村拌版绾锛杩涔濂界涓Global Weather Corp.灏璇达棰ュ戒缁涓涓叉ュ碉浜惰跺拌浜轰滑寰纭棰娴

7. 甯鸿浠璀

浼涓棰茬澶╂规涔涓灏辨喘涔板ぉ姘璐р瀹涓绉藉ㄩ椋绔娓╃跺ｅぉ姘涓╃绾杩浜绾技涔浜х浜浜虹锛瀹浠娇寰澶╂娴村绮剧‘

ュ涓浜ゆ(Chicago Mercantile Exchange)杩琛浜澶ч绾浜ゆ锛浠浠婊广靛ら浠ュ朵杩绉瑰澶╂╃烘藉杩浣涓哄茬烘涓瀹跺涓涓烘绛捐绾涓硅涓烘颁涓骞冲姘娓╀瓒杩18搴涓硅涓哄钩姘娓╀浣18搴哄绾夸涔寸宸锛浠ユ璞″版负渚冲浜瑰ㄦ搴寰剁

Swiss Re甯璇达浜ゆ浜ゆ澶╂绾ぉ姘璐у澶у虹涓ㄥ锛朵腑杩璁稿哄浜ゆ

瀵姝瑰ぇ瀛剧背灏ゅ浠路绾冲痉濮(Amiyatosh Purnanandam)澹涓瑰凹灏路奸(Daniel Weagley)灏卞ぉ姘绾璞″版纭害杩琛浜绌躲缇藉藉姘璞″伴璞＄璇绘版朵涓寮濮灏辨樊锛芥″缁存ょ锛骞叉帮姘璞″涔甯淇娓╁害锛浣绌惰浠锛褰澶╂璐ц寮ユ涓杩浜璇涓10%

褰讹缇藉藉姘璞″涓甯稿ㄦ腑璇浣甯虹ｇ姘璞″瀹舵藉浜锛浠ヤ娇娴村绮剧‘锛绾冲痉濮璇淬杩涓甯哄琛涓轰骇褰卞瀹渚

甯哄芥姘璞℃版纭害绱涔涓锛姘璞℃＄琛ㄧず浠浠磋村浜姝ャ

8. 涓绠′帮姣釜浜洪介瑕浠

ㄥ缓绛琛涓锛澶╂棰ュ寤虹宸ヤ汉璁捐甯宸ョ甯寰澶у府╋渚濡甯╀浠冲浣舵绛娣峰杩绫婚瑕浜瑙ｅぉ姘浜

瀵逛姘ヨ涔凤姘璞℃′欢冲浜绉浠涔绉瀛戒涔ャ浣舵惰娇ㄦ绛锛Climate Corp.浜у绠＄荤归β锋濂ョ(Tristan DOrgeval)璇淬璇ュ姘渚淇╋骞朵娇ㄥぇ版姘璞℃′欢杩琛濂ョ璇达杩瀵逛绉浜ヨ涓哄烘

涓瑕蹇浜杩芥Swiss Re甯璇达濡浣ヨ娌瑰锛浣浼虫敞姘娓╅ユュ冲瀛璐ч杩琛瀵瑰层

ForecastWatch瀵轰涓涓父琚ㄧ版瀵逛楂姘娓╅ョ纭害姣楂涓搴灏卞浠ヨ绾10浜跨锛绾浜烘甯61浜垮锛芥辫垂杩风ワ澶╂棰ョ纭害浼存褰卞ュ父娑璐瑰浠锋笺

9. 浠冲浣澶╂棰ュ锛浠浣

涓や釜浣垮璁稿琛涓颁骞朵娇姘璞¤涓╁瓒瓒浜浼缁瑙层棣锛姣釜浜洪借藉杩佃鸿芥鸿交惧惰版璞￠疯揪绗锛版ㄥ涓烘村娣卞ャ澶澶╂绌舵渚浜′欢濂ョ璇达娣辨版浠ユ渚甯稿蜂淇℃渚濡虹涓扮澶╂浼浣锛浠ュ澶╂濡浣褰卞绫崇跨澧

ㄨ浜缁灞讹姘璞¤涓姝ｅㄥ杩ㄨ浜淇℃府╀釜浜哄哄版村淇℃冲渚濡褰浣瑙ョ跺锛虹淇℃涓涓姝ユ璇浣介瑕逛瀹朵互渚胯刀涓椁

澶╂棰璐电版涓充ぉ姘朵汉浠浣搴淇℃浠浠凡缁剁ㄤ府╁箍瀹浜虹兢

10. 冲浠ㄩ

т缁锛姣勾22ワㄩ灏(Punxsutawney Phil)浼浠涓ワ濡瀹颁繁褰卞崇ぉ杩灏缁ㄣ浣杩涓歌哥灏ㄧ╂病拌繁褰卞锛灏卞杩ユ╂ャ瀹惧娉灏间宸搴灏(Punxsutawney)杩椤逛缁宸茬颁朵版癸杩椤规椿128骞寸浣垮灏涓轰涓浣╂棰ュ

浠骞磋灏瑙浜繁褰卞锛浣ㄤ澶绌垮浠朵锛虫宠涓浠璁板骞朵ソ澶╂缃绔Stormfax Weather Almanac绠鸿灏纭39%

缇藉藉姘版腑蹇(National Climatic Data Center)涔灏辨杩琛浜绌讹缁璁烘ㄩㄩ娴ュぉ版ヨ归㈠ㄦ病澶╄锛灏ゅ舵骞淬灏ㄧ藉朵版圭绔浜涔涓姣浠寮哄灏

锛MarketWatch锛浣锛Ben Eisen锛