璁″插寸峰コ姣渚澶辫锛浠ㄦ板绠璋卞

寰澶浜鸿涓鸿蹭典剁茬瑙寰锛规跨ュ昏插瀛锛灏辨界ㄤ汉峰コ姣渚涓峰锛

浠ㄦ板ヨュ涓杩涓跨锛涓瀵瑰澶绗コ瀛╋浠ュ绗浣界茬涓涓瀛锛浼涓浼褰卞涓涓浠ｇ峰コ姣渚涓轰逛究璇浠涓杩伴杞涓鸿涓璇存锛濡ㄤ涓浠ｄ腑浠绘涓涓锛扮峰姒灏辨峰虹锛ｄ灏卞浠ヨ杩涓跨骞朵浼褰卞峰コ姣渚

璁剧峰虹涓p锛ｄ锛濂冲虹涓1-p锛绗涓瀛疯コ杩涓や釜浜浠舵涓褰卞锛浠ョ镐ｄ锛涓杩版跨戒骇涓绉瀹跺涵锛涓涓峰锛涓や釜濂冲涓蜂濂筹杩涓绉瀹跺涵姣涓烘p锛(1-p)(1-p)锛p(1-p)

涓烘涓ょ涓や釜瀛╁瀹跺涵锛浜涓锛瑕涔浠2锛涓p锛2(1-p)(1-p)锛2p(1-p)p+2(1-p)(1-p)+2p(1-p)=2-p锛浠ワㄤ涓浠ｄ腑浠绘涓涓锛ヨ涓峰瀹跺涵姒P1=p/(2-p)锛ヨ袱涓コ瀛╁搴姒涓P2=2(1-p)(1-p)/(2-p)锛峰帮ヨ蜂濂冲搴姒涓P3=p(1-p)/(2-p)虫澶宸ヤ宸插锛涓ュ瑕璁＄锛浠婚涓涓瀛锛版峰姒P(N)冲杩瑕涓蜂濂冲涓や釜峰杩涓ょ瀹跺涵碉╃ㄥㄦ

P(N)=P(N|1)P(1)+P(N|3)P(3)=1*p/(2-p)+1/2*p(1-p)/(2-p)=p

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充负浣峰コ姣渚锛B瓒涓归灏伴疯交濂崇板虹浜轰滑涓轰浼棣杩琛浜浜哄伐╋杩涔瀵艰翠浜烘骞垮ㄥぇ琛灏贩绐琛锛澶瑕璇存充娇剁诧峰コ姣渚涔涓1:1锛浠ヤ瑕璁や负姝ｅ父峰コ姣渚灏卞璇ョ簿纭负1:1